Taiwan wonders if Trump will charge ‘protection fees’

Huang Chun-mei for RFA Mandarin2024.11.07

Taiwan’s government was quick to congratulate Donald Trump on his election as U.S. president as residents waited to see if he would follow through on comments made on the campaign trail that the island should have to pay for U.S. protection.

Presidential Office spokesperson Karen Kuo said the island’s government “will work together with the new U.S. administration and Congress to create a new situation in Taiwan-U.S. relations.”

Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang, which currently controls the Legislative Yuan, also sent congratulations, with party Chairman Eric Chu highlighting Trump’s four years of experience in the job.

“During his tenure, he led a number of pro-Taiwan bills and helped Taiwan strengthen its defenses,” Chu said. “The KMT expects Trump to continue those efforts to mediate geopolitical conflicts begun in his previous term … and strive to promote regional peace and stability.”

Trump told Bloomberg Businessweek in July that “Taiwan should pay us for defense,” adding that the U.S. was “no different than an insurance company,” relied upon by Taiwan against the threat of a possible Chinese invasion.

Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai responded at the that Taiwan is “willing to take on more responsibility” and would defend itself.

More assertive on China?

On the streets of Taipei, ordinary Taiwanese who spoke to RFA Mandarin saw Trump’s election victory as a win for the island.

“Trump is more assertive [than Biden], and China won’t do anything rash,” a resident who gave only the surname Yang told RFA Mandarin. “Trump won’t sit back and watch while China annexes Taiwan.”

An office worker who gave the surname Lee said Trump won’t necessarily charge Taiwan protection money.

“I think the situation in the Taiwan Strait will be more secure if Trump is elected,” Lee said. “But Trump’s desire for Taiwan to increase military spending doesn’t mean that spending … can be expanded indefinitely.”

Taiwan is formally governed by the Republic of China, which fled to the island after losing a civil war to the communists in mainland China. It has never been ruled by Beijing, and opinion polls show that its 23 million people have no wish to give up their sovereignty or democratic way of life.

Beijing, meanwhile, has refused to rule out the possibility of an invasion to achieve “unification.”

Trump also commented in the Bloomberg Businessweek interview that Beijing has “been very aggressive and got ships all over the place,” but suggested that Taiwanese advanced semiconductor industry was the main barrier to an armed invasion.

The comments have sparked calls for Taiwan’s government to make early contact with the Trump transition team, to clarify the president’s intentions for his next term in office.

‘Protection fees’

Tao Yi-fen, associate professor of political science at National Taiwan University, said Trump will likely be closely focused on the U.S. economy and immigration issues after taking office.

Yet there are plenty of questions around the “protection fees” comments and potential tariffs on semiconductor exports that need to be answered, Tao said.

“The Taiwanese government should get in touch with the Trump team as soon as possible to show goodwill, and propose specific measures for defense spending, so that Trump gets the sense that Taiwan is very willing to defend itself, and that Taiwan … isn’t looking for a free ride,” Tao said.

Dennis Weng, associate professor of political science at Sam Houston State University, said there is plenty of uncertainty around the next administration’s policy on Taiwan.

“Taiwan should think carefully about its own limitations when communicating with the Trump team, and set out its position and its capabilities to the U.S. in a timely manner,” Weng said. “The Taiwanese government needs to make a forecast about what its capabilities will be in advance.”

Weng said he doesn’t expect the Trump administration to deviate significantly from the current view of China as a competitor and a rival on the global stage, but said he expects Trump to focus far more on trade and negotiations than on forming military and diplomatic alliances to contain China.

“On the Taiwan issue, Trump isn’t expected to publicly offer a clear military commitment to Taiwan, but he will not let Xi Jinping think that he will abandon Taiwan either,” Tao said. “His strategy of unpredictability can play a role here.”

Translated by Luisetta Mudie; edited by Malcolm Foster.