Ukrainian opinion survey tracks fluctuating opinion on quick end to war

 

Men carry coffins during the funeral of six Ukrainian servicemen, who were killed since Ukraine launched its offensive at the Russian border region of Kursk, in Sumy, northeastern Ukraine, Aug. 15, 2024.

Washington —

A new survey of public opinion in Ukraine indicates that for the first time a slight majority of Ukrainians say they are ready to concede their lands for peace; however, other recent polls indicate opinions may be more complicated.

The Gallup polls released Tuesday, conducted in August and October, found that 52 percent of Ukrainians want their country to negotiate a quick end to the war, while 38 percent want to keep fighting until victory.

Although media reports about the survey said it reflects a shift in popular opinion from the outset of the war, when most Ukrainians wanted to fight until victory, other surveys have reported less support for a quick resolution.

In September and October of this year, the International Republican Institute\’s (IRI) Center for Insights in Survey Research (CISR) found that "strong majorities believe that Ukraine will defeat Russia in the current war and support recapturing all lost territory."

According to this survey, released November 12 and conducted by computer-assisted telephone interviews in the Kyiv-controlled territories in late September and early October, 88% of Ukrainians believe that Ukraine will win the war. This number is lower than 98% in June 2022 but has not changed since February 2024.

1,000 candles are seen in front of the 'Motherland' monument during a commemorative ceremony on the 1000th day of Russia's full scale attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine, Nov. 19, 2024.

Benedict Vigers, the author of the Gallup report, says while they asked questions by phone, the Razumkov survey asked questions in person. There are also some differences in sample coverage. For instance, the IRI survey did not get data from in Donetsk or Kherson.

In a written response to VOA, Vigers explained that a desire to end the war as soon as possible does not equal a willingness to give away territories. He points out that only half of those who want to negotiate peace are open to unspecified territorial concessions.

"Of the 52% who think Ukraine should seek to negotiate an ending to the war as soon as possible, around half (52%) are open to making some territorial concessions to achieve peace with Russia. Another 38% are not open to these concessions," he wrote.

That means that only a quarter of Ukraine\’s polled population is open to territorial concessions in exchange for peace.

"There is still a significant chunk of society that wants to keep fighting until victory, and for most of these people, victory means taking back all land lost since 2014, including Crimea,” Vigers said.

Mykhailo Mishchenko, deputy director of the Ukrainian Razumkov Center Sociological Service, showed how a slight difference in the question\’s wording can alter the results.

"When you ask the question, ‘Do you agree that Ukraine should be open to making some territorial concessions as a part of a peace deal to end the war?’ you get a different answer. It does not mean that all 52% of those who said ‘yes’ in the Gallup poll agree to the territorial concessions. They may be open to considering this question," Mishchenko told VOA.

He said that Ukrainian society is tired of war after 2.5 years, and the number of people who support negotiations has grown. They also can observe the change of rhetoric from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who said that Russia should be invited to the next peace summit. But Mishchenko cautions against interpreting the polls\’ results as a desire of Ukrainians to surrender.

In one of his previous interviews, Mishchenko pointed out that many Ukrainians do not believe that territorial concessions would end the war.

"Among those who are ready to make concessions, 26% answered that Russia\’s goal is genocide and the physical destruction of the majority of Ukrainians. Another 20% of this category indicated that Russia\’s goal is the destruction of the Ukrainian nation. In total, it is 46%. And only 15% of those who are ready to make concessions answered that Russia\’s goal is to keep the already occupied territory without claims to the rest of the territory of Ukraine,” he said in an interview with an independent Russian newspaper.

Mishchenko points out that Russian polls indicate a greater willingness of Russian society to return lands they occupied to Ukrainians in order to end the war. One such poll was conducted in September 2024 by the Levada Center, a Russian independent pollster.

"They asked respondents if they thought ‘it was necessary to continue military operations or start peace negotiations,’ " Michshenko said.

“The majority (54%) of the surveyed Russians were in favor of peace negotiations, and the minority (39%) were in favor of the continuation of hostilities. In September 2022, 48% of Russians supported negotiations, and 44% supported the continuation of hostilities,” he said.

 

By：VOA