Will specter of war in Ukraine overshadow Xi and Putin’s push for global reform?

 

FILE – Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping speak during a plenary session in the outreach/BRICS Plus format at the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, Oct. 24, 2024.

Washington —

The 2024 BRICS summit in Russia this week provided Moscow and Beijing with a showcase for their shared anti-West sentiment and global ambitions, but analysts say the war in Ukraine may be fracturing the “no limits” relationship between the two countries.

The location of the summit was strategically significant, given international efforts to isolate Russia because of its invasion of Ukraine.

“For Russia as the host, the most important thing is to highlight that it is not isolated and still has supporters on the international stage.” said Shiau-shyang Liou, associate research fellow at the Taiwan-based Institute for National Defense and Security Research.

“China is actually facing a similar predicament — it is being sanctioned by the United States, though it has not yet reached the point of military conflict. Therefore, on these issues, they share common interests and align in their direction,” Liou added.

Readouts of the summit reflected the shared ambitions of China and Russia within BRICS, a grouping of 10 countries that initially included Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa but now is expanding. New members include Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Ethiopia.

At the summit, Beijing and Moscow both articulated plans for economic systems separate from Western-led institutions; praised the success of BRICS countries in various development initiatives; and advanced plans to lead the network of states toward a more interconnected future.

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In his speech at the BRICS summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin promoted the creation of various mechanisms that would bypass traditional, Western-led systems that make his country vulnerable to Western economic sanctions.

“We believe that launching a special mechanism for consultations between BRICS countries on issues related to the World Trade Organisation will help us chart a common position on formulating more equitable rules of the game in the global economy and overhauling the international financial system,” according to a transcript of his speech released by the Kremlin.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping echoed Putin’s remarks, saying the BRICS countries “should play a leading role in the reform.”

“We must ensure that the international financial system more effectively reflects the changes in the global economic landscape,” Xi said.

He also said BRICS member countries need to jointly work toward building BRICS “into a primary channel for strengthening solidarity and cooperation among Global South nations and a vanguard for advancing global governance reform.”

China’s and Russia’s ability to deliver meaningful results on the commitments they have made is likely to face challenges, said Ali Wyne, senior researcher at the International Crisis Group.

“The BRICS grouping is unlikely to achieve geopolitical coherence. China\’s relations with India are strained, as are Iran\’s with Egypt and the United Arab Emirates. In addition, most member countries see participation in the BRICS as a means of expanding their freedom of foreign policy maneuver, not of positioning themselves against the West,” Wyne said.

The shared ambitions of Beijing and Moscow may also be overshadowed by larger geopolitical priorities, the most notable being the war in Ukraine, analysts said.

At the summit, China doubled down on its commitment to seeking a resolution of the war. Xi promoted the “Friends of Peace” initiative, a collaborative effort led by China and Brazil to pursue a negotiated end to the conflict.

U.S. and South Korean intelligence revealed the presence of an estimated 3,000 North Korean troops training in Russia for possible deployment in Ukraine. Ukraine’s military intelligence service on Thursday put the number of North Koreans already in Russia at 12,000.

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The Kremlin at first dismissed reports of North Korean troop deployments, but on Thursday at the BRICS summit, Putin did not deny North Korean troops were in Russia. That deepening wartime collaboration between China’s two neighbors puts pressure on China and runs counter to its peacemaking ambitions.

“North Korea feels increasingly comfortable defying China\’s wishes, not only by increasing its nuclear and missile provocations in the Indo-Pacific, but also by fueling an armed conflict in a different theater at a time when Beijing seeks to portray itself as a potential peacemaker,” Wyne said.

In June, Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed a mutual defense treaty to strengthen military ties. North Korea also shares a similar treaty with China and is the only country to have entered a formalized agreement of this type with Beijing.

“China\’s challenge would be whether to fulfill its commitment to protect North Korea and potentially engage in a conflict with Ukraine. If North Korea were to enter the war, it would bring significant uncertainty to China-North Korea relations,” said Shanghai-based international relations scholar Dingli Shen.

“China’s position on the Ukraine crisis is consistent and clear. We hope that all parties will work for de-escalation and be committed to political settlement,” said Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington in a statement to VOA.

Chuang Chih-wei from VOA’s Mandarin Service contributed to this report.

 

By：VOA