Myanmar military appears to be using Thai fisherman as leverage, experts say 

 

Myanmar's army-appointed Foreign Minister Than Swe attends a six-country informal consultation on the situation in Myanmar, in Bangkok, Dec. 19, 2024. (Thai Ministry of Foreign Affairs/Handout via Reuters)

Myanmar’s recent arrest and sentencing of four Thai fishermen has heightened tensions between the Southeast Asian neighbors with some analysts telling VOA the move appears to be aimed at gaining legitimacy and recognition ahead of high-level government meetings in Bangkok this week.

Earlier this week, a Myanmar court in Kawthoung sentenced the owner of a seized fishing vessel to six years in prison, and three other fisherman received four-year prison terms.

The sentencing comes as Thailand’s foreign ministry continues talks for their release and as Myanmar is the focus of high-level government meetings in Bangkok.

Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist in Bangkok at Chulalongkorn University tells VOA that it’s clear that Myanmar is using the fishermen to leverage its own interests.

“The detention of Thai fisherman is designed to gain leverage over the Thai government in return for more official engagement and recognition of the State Administration Council,” Thitinan said. The State Administration Council, or SAC, is the official name of Myanmar’s military led government.

“This makes Thailand look kind of weak. This has been going on for some time, it’s not the first time for sure, but suddenly it has become a thorny issue,” Thitinan said.

Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington who focuses on Southeast Asia politics, agrees.

“I think that the generals, in their Neanderthal-ish way, are using them to maintain Thailand’s full support,” he said, adding that it risks backfiring if they hold the fishermen too long. “The Thai government is as supportive of the junta as it could be, but there will be a public backlash at some point.”

Myanmar’s military led government has said little about the sentencing of the fishermen or when they might be released. VOA reached out to the SAC for comment but as of press has not received a response.

Fishing disputes have long been a point of friction between the two countries but late last month Myanmar’s navy fired upon 15 Thai fishing vessels on the west coast off Ranong province in southern Thailand. Both Thai and Myanmar authorities blame each other for the incident.

Dominic Thomson, regional director of Southeast Asia for the Environmental Justice Foundation, says the incident was the first of its kind in a long time.

“There have been no reports of similar incidences since at least 2015. The nature of the incident, coupled with the detention of the fishing vessels and crew is unprecedented,” he told VOA via in an emailed response earlier this month.

One Thai national drowned during the altercation, while four Thai crew members were detained along with 27 Myanmar nationals. Myanmar authorities also seized one fishing vessel, the Sor Charoenchai 8.

Group picture taken before a six-country informal consultation on the situation in Myanmar, in Bangkok, Dec. 19, 2024. (Ministry of Foreign Affairs/Handout via Reuters)

Fast forward two weeks and Bangkok is now hosting two meetings with representatives from Myanmar, Bangladesh, China, India, Laos and Malaysia. The meetings are focused on border security, transnational crime, ASEAN and the Myanmar’s crisis.

The first meeting in Bangkok was held on Thursday. On Friday, a meeting centering on ASEAN’s role on Myanmar’s crisis is set to take place.

The recent maritime altercation has added to bilateral tensions between Thailand and Myanmar’s military government ahead of the meetings.

Nearly four years after the Min Aung Hlaing and his troops staged a coup in February 2021, removing the democratically elected government, Myanmar is in a state of nationwide conflict.

FILE – Gen. Min Aung Hlaing inspects officers during a parade to commemorate Myanmar's 78th Armed Forces Day in Naypyitaw, Myanmar, March 27, 2023.

Over the past year, the junta has been losing territory, with pro-democracy and ethnic armed groups in coalition to defeat military rule. Over 60% of Myanmar is not under the military’s control.

At the same time, Myanmar is under increasing pressure to end the violence and hold an election next year.

Thitinan says for Thailand to engage the Myanmar junta in such a high-level way is “problematic” and that it’s no surprise that the Myanmar military is dragging the fisherman issue on.

“The question is why Thailand is suddenly giving in to this demand and leverage from the [State Administration Council]. The SAC is playing hardball here, to get recognition for legitimacy, and Thailand is playing along,” he said. The fisherman case dragging on is not surprising, the SAC is going to drag it on and milk it. It is surprising because in the medium long term it is detrimental. Engaging the SAC is very problematic because they are losing the civil war, and the future of Myanmar is not in favor of the SAC,” he added.

Thailand's Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa looks on during a press conference following a 6-Country informal consultation, comprising Bangladesh, China, India, Lao PDR, Myanmar, and Thailand on the situation in Myanmar, in Bangkok, Dec. 19, 2024.

For their part, Thai officials have sought to play down the incident. Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra says relations between Myanmar and Thailand remain strong, according to She said the four fishermen will be released on January 4, which, if it goes through, will be exactly five weeks since they were detained.

Thailand’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Nikorndej Balankura speaking on behalf of Thailand’s Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa says fisherman issue has already been discussed between the two countries in Thursday’s meeting.

“Our Thai Foreign Minister also had the opportunity to have bilateral meetings with the Myanmar foreign minister. They discussed key issues such as regarding the case of the four Thai fisherman,” Nikorndej told a press conference.

“The Thai Foreign Minister receives official assurance from the Myanmar side that all four Thai nationals will be released soon. Both countries will cooperate in promoting understanding and preventing recurrence of issues of the same nature,” he said.

Thitinan, however, believes the meetings in Bangkok may not be the end of the issue.

“I would not be surprised if the Foreign Minister of Thailand Maris goes over to Naypyitaw next week or the coming days to clear up this issue,” he added.

 

By：VOA